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| ARA modelling predicts tough Christmas |
   
Posted Date: 25/11/2011
By Inside Retail
Modelling by the Australian Retailers Association projects $39.5 billion in projected sales from mid November to Christmas Eve, only a moderate 2.2 per cent higher than last year.
ARA executive director Russell Zimmerman said the drilled down figures spell even more trouble, with key industry categories relying on discretionary income predicted to fall from last Christmas.
“ARA predictions indicate apparel and footwear sales could slump down 1.9 per cent lower than last year’s festive trading period. Department stores are also expected to drop by 1.5 per cent and hospitality (-0.8 per cent).
“Conversely household (1.5 per cent), food (3.4 per cent) and other retailing (4.2 per cent) are all set for a boost compared to last year, showing shoppers will more likely opt to spruce up the house and put on a family feast rather than put any more presents under the tree," said Zimmerman.
“Industry categories which traditionally count on the festive season as their biggest trading period will be bracing themselves for more of the disappointing trade they have experienced over the last 18 months.
“Retailers who are usually optimistic about the festive period fear sales will be worse than last year, with over 60 per cent* expecting fewer sales. 54 per cent are putting goods on sale in the lead up to Christmas, and 74 per cent said shoppers are looking for low prices rather than customer service or convenience.
“Retailers saw a glimmer of hope when interest rates were cut in November, and 65 per cent of respondents of the ARA Retailer Christmas Expectations Survey* said a December interest rate cut will boost sales in the lead up to Christmas because of the relief will coincide with the time people shop for their Christmas items,” Zimmerman said.
According to ARA modelling, Christmas trade for 2011 is projected as follows:
2011 national Christmas retail sales: $39.5 billion (up from 2010 - $38.6 billion): National category breakdown: food $16 billion (up 3.4 per cent), department stores $2.9 billion (down 1.5 per cent), apparel $3 billion (down 1.9 per cent), household $7 billion (up 1.5 per cent), hospitality $5.1 billion (up 1.8 per cent) and other $5.6 billion (up 4.2 per cent).
State by state Christmas 2011 retail sales: NSW $12.0 billion (up 0.8 per cent), VIC $10.1 billion (up 1.5 per cent), QLD $8.1 billion (up 1.5 per cent), SA $2.7billion (no change), WA $4.5 billion (up 8 per cent), TAS $833.5 million (up 1.8 per cent), NT $421.7 million (up 2.5 per cent) and ACT $739.5 million (up 1.7 per cent). |
Friday, November 25, 2011 by Michael Spencerd
This sounds pretty right close to what all the figures have been saying. I’d rather be a WA retailer than from SA but if you look at the monthly sales figures you can see SA will be doing well to hit the same level of sales as last year.
Department stores and clothing have been down all year so I am not surprised at this figure, if DJs are anything to go by I’d expect worse.
Last Christmas was certainly worse than these figures so if this is the worst case we are going to be better off than last year.
Friday, November 25, 2011 by Michael Spencerd
This sounds pretty right close to what all the figures have been saying. I’d rather be a WA retailer than from SA but if you look at the monthly sales figures you can see SA will be doing well to hit the same level of sales as last year.
Department stores and clothing have been down all year so I am not surprised at this figure, if DJs are anything to go by I’d expect worse.
Last Christmas was certainly worse than these figures so if this is the worst case we are going to be better off than last year.
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